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Quantum computing threats to cryptography describe the risk that sufficiently powerful quantum computers will break the mathematical assumptions underlying widely used public-key cryptographic algorithms.
# Quantum Computing Threats to Cryptography
Quantum computing threats to cryptography describe the risk that sufficiently powerful quantum computers will break the mathematical assumptions underlying widely used public-key cryptographic algorithms. Shor's algorithm, running on a cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC), can efficiently factor large integers and compute discrete logarithms, rendering RSA, ECC, Diffie-Hellman, and DSA insecure. Grover's algorithm provides a quadratic speedup for brute-force attacks on symmetric cryptography, effectively halving key lengths (AES-256 becomes AES-128 equivalent). The "harvest now, decrypt later" strategy means this threat is active today, not a future concern.
Shor's Algorithm: Factors large integers in polynomial time on a quantum computer. RSA-2048 security relies on the assumption that factoring a 2048-bit number is computationally infeasible for classical computers (estimated 10^15 years). A quantum computer with approximately 4,000 logical qubits could factor RSA-2048 in hours. Similarly, ECC-256 (used in TLS, Bitcoin, digital signatures) can be broken with approximately 2,500 logical qubits.
Grover's Algorithm: Provides quadratic speedup for unstructured search problems. For symmetric encryption, this means AES-256 provides 128 bits of effective security against quantum attack. For hash functions, collision resistance is reduced. AES-256 remains secure; AES-128 does not.
Current State of Quantum Computing: As of 2026, the largest quantum processors have thousands of physical qubits, but error rates remain high. A "logical qubit" (error-corrected, reliable) requires roughly 1,000-10,000 physical qubits depending on the error correction code. Breaking RSA-2048 would require millions of physical qubits. Estimates for when CRQCs arrive range from 2030 to 2045.
Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL): Nation-state adversaries are actively intercepting and storing encrypted communications today. When quantum computers become available, this archived data can be decrypted. Data with a secrecy requirement exceeding the estimated timeline to CRQC is already at risk. This includes classified information, trade secrets, medical records, financial data, and strategic communications.
Vulnerable Systems:
Not Immediately Vulnerable:
The threat timeline creates a paradox: the data is at risk today even though the quantum computers do not yet exist. Any data that must remain confidential for longer than the estimated time to CRQC is already compromised if it is being intercepted.
Consider a healthcare organization storing patient records encrypted with RSA-2048. Those records must remain confidential for decades (HIPAA has no expiration). If a nation-state actor captures that encrypted data today and a CRQC arrives in 2035, those records are exposed.
NIST has already standardized post-quantum algorithms (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA) as of 2024. NSA's CNSA 2.0 mandates post-quantum migration for national security systems by 2035. The migration is a multi-year effort involving every system that uses public-key cryptography. Organizations that have not started are already behind.
The migration challenge is immense. Cryptographic dependencies are embedded in every layer of technology: network protocols, application code, certificate infrastructure, hardware security modules, key management systems, and third-party integrations. Replacing them is closer to renovating a building's foundation while people live in it.
Quantum computing threats are addressed under CDA's Data Protection & Sovereignty (DPS) domain through the Sovereign Data Protocol (SDP) methodology. Our position is unambiguous: if your data has a secrecy requirement of 10+ years, the migration started yesterday.
CDA's approach:
CDA does not wait for quantum computers to arrive. Under the Empty Fortress Doctrine, we build defenses for the threat we can see coming, not the threat that has already arrived.
CDA Theater missions that address topics covered in this article.
Written by Evan Morgan
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